Assessment Woes

The City of New Haven has just released its new assessment figures, and there is a lot of talk in the media (see particularly the last couple of articles in the New Haven Independent) about tax increases by neighborhood.  As I've blogged about before, East Rock is the neighborhood in New Haven that stands out as having held its value over the past years of decline (Spring Glen in Hamden is the other one that really distinguishes itself).  Because so many areas in our region, let alone the core city, have gone down in value since the peak of the market, East Rock stands to have higher tax increases in the upcoming revaluation.

While one could look at that from a negative point of view, the real key here is that values have held up in that neighborhood, despite plenty of bad economic news and job loss around the region and the country.  Although that may cause taxes for people there to rise, they are not going to be underwater in value, as so many others are.  And that's certainly good news.

Statistics from the Region

It's tempting to make you all guess about market trends for 2010, but it would be hard for me to collect the responses in a timely way, so I guess I will just tell you. The latest Commercial Record shows that, for year over year sales from 2009 to 2010, New Haven County as a whole was down almost 8% in the number of sales. For the immediate towns, Guilford, Madison, North Haven, and Bethany had an increase from the prior year. Guilford and Madison were each up 9%, while the other two had smaller increases.

Surprisingly, the median prices were almost identical in 2009 and 2010, with 2010 coming in at 0.8% less. I expect that most of you would have guessed that prices fell about 10%, so the fact that they actually fell less than one percent is very good news. Of course, as I've often pointed out, this is not an apples-to-apples comparison, so it's probably true that only the best houses sold, meaning that most homes would have sold for less in 2010 than in the prior year. As I've discussed in earlier posts, East Rock and Spring Glen did go up in price, showing the "Yale" effect most strongly. North Branford, with 24% fewer sales, had an increase of 10%, and Milford, Wallingford, and Woodbridge had smaller increases. New Haven as a whole crept up 1%.

It is important to recognize, as the issue said in another article, that this is the sixth year in a row that sales have declined. Since prices have also been declining for most of that period, the total decline is larger than what is listed for last year. And, since most homeowners looking to sell haven't been in the market for some time, those yearly decreases can really add up.

However, the fact that we are not in freefall is very good news, and the spring is still ahead of us. Anything could happen, but we're hoping for recovery mode to kick in strongly!