Three commercial real estate developments in Ohio that made the news today are a great example of the market's uncertainty and opportunities. Looking back in two or three years from today, we believe the first half of 2010 will be seen as the turning point - for both winners and losers.
- The Newport Pavilion in Cincinnati seems like a home run, except the developer has no money. Already built with "shoppers flocking" to it, how can the market not respond positively and quickly to this opportunity (problem?)?
Lesson - the losers are starting to fall out to make way for new winners
- Developer Larry Dillon needs equity, bad, to finish the Toledo Marina District and Southwyke redevelopment, both cool projects that could really help Toledo. But Southwyke is a 3-5 year development project for retail. Is there really equity for that right now? We think so, but it's a very tough sell.
Lesson - There is interest in, and probably money for, new, grand development, but lessons learned are making people more realistic about new opportunities
- A concept is taking shape in Cleveland to revitalize Midtown. As ground-zero for development opportunities due to the near-by Cleveland Clinic campus, would a new, $35 million mixed-use development survive in Midtown along with other new technology development? Considering the other activity going on there, it sure looks like other people think so.
Lesson - Forget that last lesson - let's dive in head first!
An interesting year 2010 is shaping up to be indeed.
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